How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier, has asked me to write this article with the assumption that he’ll never need to issue a call to someone claiming to have a winning soccer betting system.
But I’ll give it a short response. Yes, you could get someone to say they have a 97% special dispensation to anyone who will listen, but that statement is entirely false. I can’t reveal too much about the composition of my betting system, but it’s likely that the best soccer value is found by betting on the Under 2.5 goals market.
Why is this, you ask? That simple. Teams playing from the advanced leagues ( Serie A and the European Champion League) seldom win outright, and when they do, the margin of victory is usually not conducive to the punter. Outside of the big games, punters often can’t tell the true ability of a team.
The simple fact of the matter is that, statistically speaking, the best way to successes in betting on soccer is to look at the past performance between the same two clubs.
Take a look at the past seasons between the two clubs. It is true that the teams playing in the Premier League have won almost exclusively, both home and away. In the same way, the teams playing in the lower leagues have also had almost no significant away wins to show for it.
The problem lies in the fact that the league positions are more based on statistics than anything else. This means that the pompous elite teams may well have weaker opponents, but they are often still better value to bet on than the more sophisticated teams in the lower divisions.
Where I run into trouble with my system is in the selection process. It doesn’t take into account the likely quality of away teams, or whether they have played last away, or where they are currently playing.
Often the away records Don’t Tell You anything by Threefold, but can be very telling. Therefore, either pick your home games or away games based on the statistically most convening criteria, or use the ‘QuickStats’ option which calculates the probability of your selection, irrespective of whether it is away or at home.
The Dangers Of Playing In The Lower Divisions
By using the criteria in the lower divisions, many statistical biases that punters have and end up giving handicap to higher performing teams in the same league, when in fact they should be concentrating less on the value of the opposition and more on home win and draw statistics. Therefore, when betting on the upper divisions in the hope of scooping a profit, you end up with more value on the higher performing teams who, save for a big away win, rarely play away from home.
This bias is easy to see when you check the league positions of each club. Often the big guns of the premier leagues ( Milan, Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Dewalive, Real Madrid) will not play home games in the lower divisions. This one little bias could easily account for a 2 or 3 goal defeat in a football match sometime during the season.
I hope this article has provided you with the knowledge you need to identify value in the form of home win / draw statistics.bs
More specifically, I hope it has identified any weaknesses in your betting analysis and allowed you to reclassify your bets to value, before you finalize your betting strategy.